Six trends to watch in 2026 as Asia-Pacific prepares to overtake North America as the largest consumer market worth $36 trillion in 2035

Asia Pacific is set to overtake North America as the largest consumer market in 2035, according to a new joint report by Bain & Company and NielsenIQ (NIQ). Private consumption in the region is expected to grow at 7% CAGR to reach $36 trillion by the end of the next decade, as global private consumption nearly doubles from about $65 trillion in 2025 to $110–$120 trillion by 2035.

This shift underscores the changes underway in how and where consumers across Asia Pacific spend, setting the stage for new growth patterns that will define 2026 and beyond.

In the moving annual total ending in June 2025, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) value grew 4% in the Asia Pacific region, fueled by 2.8% volume growth and 1.2% price, signaling a healthier balance than the largely price-driven growth seen in North America and Western Europe. The region remains central to the growth agenda of global consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, although performance varies significantly across its consumer markets.

“Asia Pacific is where the next decade of global consumption will be decided,” said David Zehner, head of the APAC Consumer Products practice at Bain & Company. “The region’s opportunities while vast, are uneven across markets – and companies need to understand local nuances while scaling to capture the full potential of the APAC region.”

Research by NIQ shows that India is demonstrating robust momentum, with value growth of 7.2% in 2024 accelerating to 13.7% in the first half of 2025. By contrast, Southeast Asia’s growth eased to 1.8%, down from 3.5% a year earlier. China is showing early signs of rebound. Its overall FMCG growth rose from 2.8% in 2024 to 4.7% in H1 2025, led by online channels. Likewise, South Korea’s performance remains buoyed by e-commerce expansion. This divergence in performance across markets underscores the need for localized strategies.

Looking ahead to 2026, the report outlines six forces shaping the region’s consumer landscape – key dynamics that CPG leaders should watch closely in the year ahead:

1. Shifting market dynamics calls for diversified strategy – The region no longer relies on a single market growth engine. While China remains the largest contributor to APAC GDP growth, India and parts of Southeast Asia are expected to rise in economic significance, creating a multi-market growth reality that demands diversified strategies.

2. Diverging consumer preferences – Consumers across markets are not uniformly trading down. Bain’s analysis shows distinct pricing trends – from premiumization in India and Indonesia to polarization in China – underscoring the need for differentiated offerings.

3. Increasing channel complexity and AI alter consumer journey – Online remains the central growth engine, with e-commerce accounting for about 40% of FMCG sales in China and South Korea. Emerging channels such as social commerce and quick commerce are expanding rapidly, reshaping how consumers discover and purchase brands. According to a NIQ survey, 39% of consumers in Asia Pacific already use generative AI in online shopping, and an additional 40% are willing to adopt it in the future.

4. Rising local heroes – Asia Pacific is largely dominated by local and regional brands, with domestic players gaining share across most developing markets, except India. Local brands are outpacing multinationals in innovation speed and market agility. They are also more closely attuned to local consumer needs.

5. Scalable agility as the next differentiator – Successful CPGs are learning to replicate best practices across markets to empower agility and sharing capabilities to improve cost efficiency.

6. AI as a game changer – Leading companies are embedding AI across the value chain, including innovation, marketing, sales, supply chains and operating models. Those seeing real transformation are grounding AI initiatives in reliable data and complete and comprehensive consumer insights so that automation supports smarter and faster decisions. Instead of treating AI as a standalone technology deployment, CPGs are using it to augment human expertise and improve market responsiveness.

To achieve sustainable growth, Bain and NIQ recommend that CPGs leverage these six emerging trends and adapt their approaches to create new and lasting competitive advantages. Companies should clearly define the role of each market – whether as a growth engine, profit hub or innovation testbed – and align investments and resources accordingly. Brands need to redefine value beyond price, adapting to varied consumer preferences and market dynamics.

CPGs must also build fit-for-purpose business models to capture new channel growth, such as from social and quick commerce, and compete like local brands by empowering in-market teams with speed and autonomy in “big bet” markets. Likewise, multinational companies should systematically transfer knowledge and build capabilities across markets, turning existing success into a competitive advantage. Finally, leaders should look to scale AI adoption at the enterprise level ensuring it is powered by reliable data and comprehensive consumer insights to drive sustainable growth and efficiency.

"In China, India, Indonesia and Thailand, where adoption is higher than the regional average, over 50% of consumers are already using generative AI to help with their online shopping," said Craig Houliston, Asia Pacific Regional Consulting and Insights Lead at NIQ. "As Asia Pacific consumers continuously look for more convenience and affordability, we expect Generative AI to play a bigger part in empowering the shopper."

“The APAC region is complex in nature. Consumer behaviors and channel dynamics are fragmenting faster than ever,” added Elle Yang, partner at Bain & Company. “Winning in this environment means having the courage to localize – adapting faster to market signals while building models that can scale across borders.”